TheLion Stock Roars Report
"The Report with Solid Ideas Behind It"
September 6, 2001
Dow 9858.61 -174.66 (-1.74%) Nasdaq 1705.65 -53.36 (-3.03%)
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By TheLion Staff:
Market Ideas for 9/6/2001
1) Stocks fell for the third day in a row. Motorola and Intel the culprits behind the fear. Negative comments from analysts also keyed in the weak chip and networking sectors. Initial jobless claim figures rose to a new eight-year high amid company layoffs and hiring freeze. Right now fear is dominating the markets in the short-run. Market volatility has seen its highest for sometime now.
2) Watch Unemployement figures tomorrow. Market is expecting a 4.6%. If it hit this mark, we should see a decent upturn in the NAZ front.
Stock Ideas for 9/6/2001
1) Manugistics (MANU) closed at $7.80 with a gain of $1.80, or 30%, after opening at $6 this morning. We noted MANU is selling at 2x sales, and price discounting has already been factored into the stock long ago. If you believe MANU should sport a 3x sales basis, this is a nice short-term stock up to the $10s range.
2) Broadvision (BVSN) closed at $1.11 down just $0.04 after forming a solid base at $1.02. There is a fear factor being played out in the short-run, much to the delight of the shorts. Delisting is not an issue here. Cash and balance sheet is solid, business and pipeline also solid going forward.
These are the main points from the conference during the after-hours session.
1. With all the expected cash burn, there will be still $150M cash or equivalent
by end of 2002.
2. Self service model is the future growth, BVSN has the advantage on it.
3. Growth will be about 40% per year.
4. Comfortable with the current status.
5. Old customers come back for more business.
6. Customers example: British telecom, Home depot, American Airline, WalMart, the big customers.
7. Still maintaining good portion of R&D and customers' service employee for business recovery.
3) Hearing that Redback (RBAK) will roll out a new edge router to compete with Cisco later this month. This is where the fat margins in the router space can rescue a company like Redback. However, execution remains the key with former Cisco head Kevin DeNuccio now at the helm.
4) Micromuse (MUSE) off $1.35 to 8.74 after an analyst downgraded the stock. MUSE is trading at 3x sales. Earnings is expected to hit $0.30 this year. PE of 25 is where we think MUSE may be a good stock in the $7 range. The fat margins with its best breed Netcool product lines and its relationship Fortune 500 companies make MUSE a worthwhile stock to watch in our opinion.
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